Weather Map Co., Ltd., a group company of IMAGICA GROUP Inc. that specializes in meteorologist dispatch, weather data provision, and weather content distribution, has announced the second Cherry blossom Forecast for 2026, covering 53 locations from Kyushu to Hokkaido.
For detailed information, please visit the Cherry blossom Forecast website:
Overview of This Year's Cherry Blossoms
Cherry blossoms in 2026 are expected to bloom around the average date or slightly early from the Kanto region westward, with Northern Japan seeing early blooms. Western Japan will be around average, Eastern Japan slightly early, and Northern Japan will see many areas with early blooming.
Second Forecast [Bloom Dates]
Tokyo: Around March 19th, Fukuoka: Around March 20th
Kochi: Around March 21st, Nagoya: Around March 25th, Osaka: Around March 26th
Cherry Blossom Front (Isochrone Map)
Forecast Details
Cherry blossoms in 2026 are expected to bloom around the average date in Western Japan, slightly early in Eastern Japan, and early in many parts of Northern Japan.
This winter has seen cold air masses arriving periodically, though they haven't lasted long, and there have been periods of considerably high temperatures. As a result, dormancy breaking appears to be slightly weaker than average in many areas, with this tendency being stronger in the west.
Late January and early February have been cold, but temperatures are forecast to be higher than average through March, with particularly high temperatures expected in the eastern regions during March. Therefore, blooming is expected to be around average in Western Japan and slightly early in many parts of Eastern Japan.
In Northern Japan, blooming is expected to be early due to forecast higher temperatures through April, though it's not expected to be as dramatically early as has become common in recent years.
Weather Map Co., Ltd.'s Forecast Method – 10,000 Simulations Utilizing "Bloom Probability"
Cherry blossom bloom forecasting heavily depends on temperature forecast accuracy. Therefore, Weather Map Co., Ltd. employs the following methodology:
Independent temperature forecasting based on the Japan Meteorological Agency's numerical predictions
Simulation of approximately 10,000 bloom dates based on predicted temperature data (= bloom probability)
Publication of the average of these 10,000 bloom dates as the "bloom forecast date"
This method is considered to minimize errors based on past examples. The "Cherry blossom Forecast 2026" website displays simulation results as "bloom probability" graphs, providing information with a range rather than just the traditional "bloom forecast date."
Future Announcement Schedule
The schedule for future announcements is as follows:
Second Forecast (Current) February 5th (Thursday)
Third Forecast February 12th (Thursday)
Subsequently, updates will be made every Thursday in February, and from March 2nd (Monday) onwards, every Monday and Thursday.
Cherry Blossom Specimens and Definitions of Blooming and Full Bloom
Weather Map Co., Ltd.'s cherry blossom forecast targets the "specimen trees" of cherry blossoms in various locations nationwide. These are located at or near each meteorological observatory, and approximate locations are published on the website.
The definitions of blooming and full bloom are as follows, consistent with the Japan Meteorological Agency's phenological observation standards:
Bloom: When 5 to 6 or more flowers have opened on the specimen tree
Full Bloom: When 80% or more of the buds on the specimen tree have opened
The first day when each of these conditions is met is forecast as the bloom date or full bloom date.
Bloom and Full Bloom Forecast Dates by Location
